Climate Change

For the southeast of the UK the trend in climate is towards hotter drier summers and warmer wetter winters, with increased storminess. In the marine environment potential impacts include relative sea level rise, increased seawater temperatures, ocean acidification and changes in ocean circulation. The combination of sea level rise and the likelihood of flooding and greater coastal erosion is a real threat to both people and the existing habitats and species around the Solent.  There may also be a significant effect on the coast due to storminess and associated wave and surge actions and rivers discharging higher flows and sediment loads into the sea. Such physical changes to the coast will also significantly impact on human activity. Where we live, take part in recreation and work will all be influenced by changes in our natural environment. There are many difficult choices to be made in the future as we learn to live with different weather patterns and more severe weather events.  

What is happening?

In 2023, MCCIP published a report showing that climate change is already affecting species and habitats residing in UK seas. These effects are set to increase if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and accelerate climate change. More guidance and support are urgently needed to enable planners and other managers of our seas to implement climate-smart solutions, particularly spatial management strategies which integrate, and may be adaptive to, the effects of a changing climate.

The State of the UK Climate 2023 report shows that:

• For the second successive year, 2023 was the warmest year for UK near-coast sea-surface temperature (SST) in a series from 1870.
• The most recent decade (2014–2023) has been on average 0.3°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average and 0.9°C warmer than 1961–1990 for UK near-coast SST.
• Six years of the most recent decade (2014–2023) for UK near-coast SST are within the top-ten warmest in the series.

National Policy and Research

The United Kingdom Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) brings together scientists, government, its agencies and NGOs to provide co-ordinated advice on climate change impacts and adaptation around our coast and in our seas. It collates and synthesise evidence on UK climate change impacts and disseminates this information to stakeholders.

Findings include:

• There is clear evidence that warming seas, reduced oxygen, ocean acidification and sea-level rise are already affecting UK coasts and seas. Increasingly, these changes are having an impact on food webs, with effects seen in seabed-dwelling species, as well as plankton, fish, birds and mammals.
• The upper range for the latest UK sea-level rise projections is higher than previous estimates, implying increased coastal-flood risk. The likelihood of compound effects from tidal flooding and extreme rainfall is increasing, which can greatly exacerbate flood impacts.
• Oxygen concentrations in UK seas are projected to decline more than the global average, especially in the North Sea.
• Fisheries productivity in some UK waters has been negatively impacted by ocean warming and historical overexploitation.
• Impacts of climate change have already been observed at a range of heritage sites. Coastal assets will be subjected to enhanced rates of erosion, inundation and weathering or decay. 

Natural England have produced an excellent Manual on Climate Change that covers a range of coastal and marine habitats, explaning the impacts of climate change on those habitats and adaptation responses.

In 2018, the Committee on Climate Change published a guide to Managing the coast in a changing climate. A key finding is that climate change will exacerbate the already significant exposure of the English coast to flooding and erosion. The current approach to coastal management in England is unsustainable in the face of climate change.

The Climate Change Act, 2008 gives the UK a legally binding long-term framework to cut carbon emissions. It also creates a framework for building the UK's ability to adapt to climate change.  A Coastal Change Pathfinder review involved 15 authorities exploring new ways of adapting to coastal change.

Work by the Environment Agency shows that flood and coastal erosion risk in England is expected to increase due to climate change and development in areas at risk. It is not possible to prevent all flooding or coastal erosion, but there are actions that can be taken to manage these risks and reduce the impacts on communities. The Agency has published a national Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England. This strategy promotes the use of a wide range of measures to manage risk and states that risk should be managed in a co-ordinated way within catchments and along the coast and balance the needs of communities, the economy and the environment.

What is coastal transition?

A process of coastal transition can be used to support communities where it is not sustainable to construct or maintain risk management structures, now or in the future. It can help reduce the effects of coastal change on individuals, communities, the economy and the environment. What successful coastal transition looks like and involves depends very much on the circumstances and needs of those who live, work and use our coastal places, but could involve:

• raising awareness of the risks from coastal change
• developing place-based transition or adaptation plans
• proactively relocating or replacing at-risk assets (e.g, homes, businesses, infrastructure)

Local Projects - Coastal Communities Adapting to Change (CCATCH) - The Solent

The Environment Agency successfully won an EU Interreg IVa 2 seas bid ‘Coastal Communities 2150 and Beyond’ (CC2150). Hampshire County Council and five other partners working closely with the Agency, the lead organisation, developed the project. It began in February 2011 ran until December 2013. Hampshire County Council’s element of the CC2150 bid was ‘CCATCH – the Solent'.

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